Paying the price for excitement

A common investment mantra is that high risk equals high returns. Yet, if we look back at history, we see so often this is not the case, for the simple reason that excitement is fundamentally overvalued.

We can of course in hindsight look back on bubbles throughout history and wonder why on earth anyone was willing to get involved. Take for example the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble in the early 1600s, when speculation and social status drove the value of tulips to extreme levels – the rarest tulips up to 6 times average salaries at the height of the market!

Or indeed the Great Baseball Card Bubble of the 1980s, where collecting went from a niche hobby to big business, as irrational exuberance drove prices to absurd levels.

Rising values created demand in both of these examples but before long, prices reversed as exuberance was swapped for panic selling as the bubble popped.

Yet we see market experts also overpaying for excitement. Whether it was mortgage-backed securities in ’07 or technology stocks in ‘99, it seems that the market easily forgets irrational exuberance from years gone by. Today we have the crypto-currency boom which is drawing investors in, on the hope you are smart enough to ride the boom and get out before the bust, or indeed that ‘this time it’s different.’

As high yield investors, we do not believe that investing is as simple as high risk equals high return – we are firm in our belief that excitement is so often overvalued. Rather, we believe that while quality is boring, boring is fundamentally undervalued. For that simple reason, we enjoy the not-so-secret pleasure of buying undervalued, ‘boring’ bonds.

This means that when the bubbles pop, we are left holding a whole lot more than those investors gripping on to their bit of cardboard with a picture of a baseball player on it.

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Duration risk – a valid concern, but not one of mine

Mark Benbow warns of the growing duration risk in the bond market and how clients should be mindful of facing more risk by default, rather than design

One of the biggest concerns that bond investors face right now is duration risk – the risk that a rise in interest rates creates a fall in bond prices. Considering that the duration of bond benchmarks has been rising for the past 20 years, investors are wise to be mindful of this risk.

Source: Bloomberg as at 30 June 2017

We’ve experienced a long-term trend of falling bond yields, thanks in part to the extremely accommodative monetary policy implemented globally by central banks. As yields have continued to fall, the behaviour of debt issuers has started to change. Debt issuers are taking advantage of this low-rate environment to lock in an all-time low cost of debt for as long as possible, by issuing long-dated bonds. Just last month Argentina issued a bond with a maturity of 100 years, just three years after its last default! Is 8% a tempting enough income to lend to Argentina for 100 years, considering the five defaults it has faced in the last century alone?

The merits of individual issuers aside, the importance of this change in behaviour is that as issuers borrow for longer periods, the level of duration in bond benchmarks rises.

This is at the same time as lower yields are forcing investors into lower-rated or longer-dated bonds to generate income in their portfolios. And certainly the demand for yield in the market is proving insatiable at this stage of the cycle. Factors such as rising pension deficits and the need for retirement liability matching have driven the demand for longer-dated bonds as yields continue to fall.

This is a noteworthy combination: ever-lower yields means more supply (and greater demand) of longer-dated bonds, but for investors’ bond portfolios it can mean more duration risk for less return potential – this is reflected in the chart below.


Source: Bloomberg as at 30 June 2017

Index-based investors in particular face the risk of following this trend and being forced into longer duration than desired in response to the changing characteristics of fixed income markets. Indeed many fixed income portfolio managers are being dragged longer in duration as their underlying benchmark duration has increased, therefore exposing the end investor to additional interest rate risk by default rather than design.

At Kames we do not simply chase benchmark duration as we do not believe debt indices are the basis for a successful investment. In our experience, concentrating our efforts on identifying alpha-generating ideas is the best starting point for building portfolios – not what an index provider tells us.

As a high yield fund manager I take additional comfort in the different characteristics offered by the high yield asset class. Unlike in other markets, duration has been falling over the last 20 years. This offers us significant opportunities to invest in shorter-dated, higher yielding assets and build concentrated, high conviction portfolios to the benefit of our clients.

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