Navigating a sea of M&A

Much has been written about the recent acceleration in global M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) activity. The $1.4trn worth of deals announced globally year to date is 75% higher than 2017 and the strongest first four months of any year on record according to Dealogic.  

Accelerating M&A is often cited as a late cycle indicator although Citigroup argue this year’s pace is not yet a sell signal for equities, given it is well below previous cycle peaks when considered as a percentage of equity market capitalisation.
Nonetheless, as credit investors increased M&A gives us considerable pause for thought. Despite the recent increase in global rates, companies can still take advantage of historically cheap debt funding to help finance acquisitions through increased corporate leverage. Indeed, the frequency of large, M&A-related debt issuance has increased in recent years (see chart 1).

Chart 1: Large debt issuance deals ($5bn or higher) which includes acquisitions among the use of proceeds

Source: Dealogic, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Such issuance can create headwinds for performance at both the issuer and sector level. However, it can also create opportunity. Empirical analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests the evidence supports a “sell the rumour, buy the news” pattern.

Here at Kames we adopt a similar strategy in trying to avoid issuers and sectors, such as pharmaceuticals, where we see the risk of leverage increasing via M&A as high, and where current valuations do not compensate for the risk. Instead we seek to invest “post-transaction” in newly issued bonds used to help finance an acquisition, when management are able to provide clarity around the trajectory of balance sheet metrics. It is our approach to bottom-up analysis and active investing that helps us navigate the idiosyncrasies of M&A and increase returns for our clients.

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Love me tender…

Despite recent gilt market weakness related to a shift in rhetoric around the prospect of a rate rise from the Bank of England in the near term, sterling credit markets remain well underpinned. Key to this is the strong macro backdrop and generally robust corporate earnings of recent months coupled with the twin technical drivers of inflows into the asset class and ongoing buying of corporates by the European Central Bank.

Another technical that has become more prevalent in recent months as the market has rallied is companies tendering early for their outstanding debt. Tesco and the US communications giant Verizon are the latest companies to join the fray. Motivation to do so at the corporate level is multi-faceted but usually entails a combination of reducing gross debt, reducing interest expense through reissuing lower coupon debt, lengthening the duration of outstanding liabilities or simplifying the company’s capital structure.

Such actions can be beneficial as tenders are typically struck at a premium to the prevailing market and may involve an additional early tender fee. However, investors must balance the benefit of a short-term gain with the ability to replace tendered bonds with attractive alternatives. At Kames we consider each tender on its individual merits, weighing the potential for short-term gain against the credit fundamentals of the company involved and alternative investments available in the market.

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Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated – the Sterling corporate bond market continues to thrive

More than a year has passed since the Bank of England announced its £10bn Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CPBS). While the scheme was completed by April, much more quickly than originally anticipated, its positive impact on the market has been lasting.

Prior to the Bank’s intervention the importance of the sterling corporate bond market was under threat, in part due to poor secondary liquidity and a lack of supply from borrowers drawn to the depth, convenience and competitive pricing of the euro and dollar markets. Even UK-centric borrowers such as Royal Mail favoured the euro market over their home turf.

The backstop bid that the Bank’s scheme provided gave market makers the confidence to increase secondary liquidity through tighter bid/offer and larger size. There was concern as the scheme drew to a close in April that the improved liquidity would diminish but this hasn’t happened. Higher volumes have persisted and market participants are more confident trading larger blocks. A marked increase and greater variety of new issuance over the course of this year (gross issuance year to date has already surpassed full year 2016 volumes) has also helped to define market levels and encourage further secondary activity.

To this end, the Bank’s intervention has been a great success. A more dynamic market presents further opportunities for us as active managers to express views and add value to portfolios for the benefit of our clients.

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The end of sterling corporate QE

The Bank of England is within sight of the end of its corporate bond purchase scheme, a year ahead of schedule, having bought in excess of £9.1bln worth of bonds since the end of September last year.  Given the relatively robust performance of the economy since Brexit, an increase to the £10bln target at this stage is deemed highly unlikely.

Evidence would suggest that the original aims of the programme – reducing the cost of borrowing for companies, encouraging companies to issue more corporate bonds and triggering portfolio rebalancing into riskier assets – have largely been met. Corporate bond supply has increased, spreads are tighter (albeit not uniformly) and lower quality spreads have compressed.

While not an explicit aim, the consistent bid for risk over the past few months has also led to reduced volatility and a marked improvement in liquidity. Going forward, a deterioration in that secondary liquidity following the end of the programme is a concern. As the rate of the Bank’s buying slows, recycling risk becomes more challenging, particularly given relatively tight valuations. Dealer inventories grow and spreads widen. There is evidence this is happening. Sterling credit spreads (libor OAS) are currently c7bps tighter YTD having been as much as 13bps tighter in early March.

The end for sterling corporate QE is not the only factor driving our currently cautious stance towards credit risk.  Brexit uncertainty, the potential for Trump disappointment and European political risk also vex. However as a precursor to the potential end of the ECB buying programme next year, it is certainly worth watching.