The March survey PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) continue to point towards healthy levels of economic growth. Encouragingly, the pick-up in activity is very broad-based across developed and emerging market economies.
In GDP terms the current level is associated with a global real GDP above 4% (global nominal GDP above 6%). This level of output compares positively versus recent years.
Below we provide a summary of the Global Manufacturing PMIs.
Source: Bloomberg as at 9 February 2017
In the latest dataset, over 75% of the countries’ PMI indices were above 52, showing a good level of expansion, while just three economies were below 50, a level associated with a contractionary environment. This compares to a year ago when the proportion of countries above 52 was less than 50%.
In the coming months we will find out if this is simply a cyclical improvement or we are finally moving towards a structurally healthier level of global activity.
But for now the story is very encouraging.